defense.autoArmoured vehicle procurement
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Heatmap

Where armoured vehicle requirements are most plausible, country by country.

Scored from a 194-country baseline of customs, budget, mandate and threat evidence, then adjusted as tenders and notices arrive from the live sources.

RequirementAddressable
Requirement heat · Commercial Live · computed · 142 programmes, 0 notices in review
World map of armoured vehicle requirement heat Countries are shaded from low to very high heat. The country ranking below the map lists the same values.
  1. Low1–19
  2. Moderate20–39
  3. Elevated40–59
  4. High60–79
  5. Very high80–100
  • No signal
  • Compliance hold

Country ranking

86 of 194 countries show a signal · Commercial · Requirement
RankCountryHeatBandLiveEvidenceHorizonConfidenceWorkbook
1 MexicoAmericas 93 Very high — Actual Next High P2
2 BrazilAmericas 90 Very high — Actual Next High P2
3 NigeriaAfrica 84 Very high +4 Actual Now High P1
4 PalestineAsia and Middle East 64 High +2 Actual Next High P2
5 PakistanAsia and Middle East 64 High +4 Actual Next High P2
6 HaitiAmericas 61 High +16 Forecast Now High P2
7 SomaliaAfrica 60 Elevated +18 Actual Now High P2
8 Afghanistan HoldAsia and Middle East 58 Elevated +22 Actual Now High Hold
9 UkraineEurope 56 Elevated +9 Actual Now High P2
10 LebanonAsia and Middle East 53 Elevated +15 Forecast Now High P2
11 SyriaAsia and Middle East 49 Elevated — Forecast Next Medium P2
12 Sudan HoldAfrica 49 Elevated — Forecast Next Medium Hold
13 LibyaAfrica 48 Elevated +11 Forecast Now Medium P2
14 Myanmar HoldAsia and Middle East 47 Elevated — Forecast Next Medium Hold
15 GhanaAfrica 45 Elevated — Actual Next High P2
16 DR CongoAfrica 44 Elevated — Actual Next High P2
17 Yemen HoldAsia and Middle East 44 Elevated +3 Forecast Next Medium Hold
18 MaliAfrica 42 Elevated — Actual Next High P2
19 EcuadorAmericas 42 Elevated — Forecast Next Medium P2
20 NigerAfrica 42 Elevated — Actual Next High P2
21 Burkina FasoAfrica 40 Elevated — Forecast Next Medium P2
22 GermanyEurope 40 Elevated +40 Plausible Now High None
23 ChadAfrica 39 Moderate — Forecast Next Medium P2
24 Russia HoldEurope 39 Moderate — Forecast Next Medium Hold
25 South SudanAfrica 39 Moderate — Forecast Next Medium P2
26 IraqAsia and Middle East 37 Moderate — Actual Next High P2
27 Belarus HoldEurope 37 Moderate — Forecast Next Medium Hold
28 Central African RepublicAfrica 37 Moderate — Forecast Next Medium P2
29 Iran HoldAsia and Middle East 37 Moderate — Forecast Next Medium Hold
30 North Korea HoldAsia and Middle East 37 Moderate — Forecast Next Medium Hold
31 UgandaAfrica 37 Moderate — Actual Next High P2
32 CameroonAfrica 33 Moderate — Actual Next High P2
33 EthiopiaAfrica 33 Moderate — Forecast Next Medium P2
34 PolandEurope 32 Moderate +32 Actual Now High None
35 IsraelAsia and Middle East 32 Moderate +13 Actual Now High P3
36 HondurasAmericas 29 Moderate +14 Plausible Now Low P3
37 United KingdomEurope 28 Moderate +28 Plausible Now High None
38 Republic of the CongoAfrica 24 Moderate +9 Plausible Now Low P3
39 EstoniaEurope 23 Moderate +23 Actual Now High None
40 ItalyEurope 22 Moderate +22 Plausible Now High None
41 PortugalEurope 22 Moderate +22 Actual Now High None
42 GeorgiaAsia and Middle East 18 Low +3 Plausible Later Low P3
43 MaltaEurope 18 Low +18 None found Now Low None
44 CzechiaEurope 17 Low +17 None found Now Low None
45 United StatesAmericas 16 Low +16 Actual Now High None
46 ColombiaAmericas 16 Low — Actual Next High P3
47 TanzaniaAfrica 16 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
48 AlgeriaAfrica 16 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
49 AngolaAfrica 16 Low — Actual Next High P3
50 BahrainAsia and Middle East 16 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
51 BangladeshAsia and Middle East 16 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
52 BeninAfrica 16 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
53 ChileAmericas 16 Low — Actual Next High P3
54 Cuba HoldAmericas 16 Low — Plausible Later Low Hold
55 DjiboutiAfrica 16 Low — Actual Next High P3
56 EgyptAfrica 16 Low — Actual Next High P3
57 GabonAfrica 16 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
58 GambiaAfrica 16 Low — Actual Next High P3
59 GuatemalaAmericas 16 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
60 GuineaAfrica 16 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
61 IndiaAsia and Middle East 16 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
62 JordanAsia and Middle East 16 Low — Actual Next High P3
63 KazakhstanAsia and Middle East 16 Low — Actual Next High P3
64 KenyaAfrica 16 Low — Actual Next High P3
65 KuwaitAsia and Middle East 16 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
66 LiberiaAfrica 16 Low — Actual Next High P3
67 MauritaniaAfrica 16 Low — Actual Next High P3
68 MozambiqueAfrica 16 Low — Actual Next High P3
69 New ZealandOceania 16 Low — Actual Next High P3
70 OmanAsia and Middle East 16 Low — Actual Next High P3
71 Papua New GuineaOceania 16 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
72 QatarAsia and Middle East 16 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
73 RwandaAfrica 16 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
74 Saudi ArabiaAsia and Middle East 16 Low — Actual Next High P3
75 SenegalAfrica 16 Low — Actual Next High P3
76 South AfricaAfrica 16 Low — Actual Next High P3
77 TogoAfrica 16 Low — Actual Next High P3
78 United Arab EmiratesAsia and Middle East 16 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
79 Venezuela HoldAmericas 16 Low — Plausible Later Low Hold
80 ZambiaAfrica 16 Low — Actual Next High P3
81 NorwayEurope 15 Low +15 Actual Now High None
82 CanadaAmericas 9 Low +9 Actual Next High None
83 LatviaEurope 9 Low +9 Actual Next High None
84 SwedenEurope 9 Low +9 Plausible Later Low None
85 NetherlandsEurope 8 Low +8 Actual Next High None
86 AustriaEurope 1 Low +1 Plausible Later Low None
Show all 86 countries

How heat is scored

Heat measures how plausible a present requirement is, not how large a sale would be. Each country is scored separately for government and security vehicles, commercial vehicles, and spares and service, because a market can be closed for personnel carriers and open for service work.

structural  = 100 × evidence × (0.35 + 0.40 × scale + 0.25 × threat)
heat        = structural + (100 − structural) × 0.40 × live
addressable = heat × access
all segments = 0.6 × strongest segment + 0.4 × mean of the three

Evidence gates the score. Without a documented purchase, budget, mandate, counted fleet or dated threat listing, scale and threat cannot create a requirement. Unknown scale counts as 0.25, not zero: the baseline records missing measurement, not missing demand.

Live procurement confirms; it does not size. Published programmes and notices awaiting review add weight by stage, with a 120-day half-life and a 25% boost while a tender is open. At saturation they close 40% of the gap to 100.

Access is a separate lens. The requirement lens shows need regardless of supplier. The addressable lens discounts contested markets to 70% and closed markets to 15%. Countries under sanctions or embargo exposure are hatched in both lenses and score zero when addressable.

Input weights
EvidenceActual 1.00 · Forecast 0.70 · Plausible 0.35 · None 0
ScaleLarge 1.00 · Medium 0.70 · Small 0.40 · Unknown 0.25
ThreatConflict index up to 0.60 · US Level 4 advisory 0.30 · other dated data 0.10 · capped at 1
Live stageTender 1.0 · Evaluation 0.9 · Planning 0.8 · Award 0.6 · Production 0.4 · Service 0.3 · Notice in review 0.35
AccessOpen 1.00 · Contested 0.70 · Closed 0.15 · Hold 0
Check against the baseline workbook
Workbook priorityCountriesMedian addressable baseline
P12153
P25342
P32813
None820
Hold100

The model keeps the workbook’s order: P1 above P2 above P3. Baseline built 18 September 2026 from customs records, procurement budgets, regulatory mandates, fleet disclosures and threat datasets. HS 8710 understates civilian armoured SUVs and cash-in-transit vehicles. Heat is a prompt for research, not a forecast of orders or a compliance clearance.