Heatmap

Where armoured vehicle requirements are most plausible, country by country.

Scored from a 194-country baseline of customs, budget, mandate and threat evidence, then adjusted as tenders and notices arrive from the live sources.

Requirement Addressable

Requirement heat · Government & security Live · computed 21:43 UTC · 142 programmes, 0 notices in review

Low1–19
Moderate20–39
Elevated40–59
High60–79
Very high80–100

No signal
Compliance hold
Buying hubs

Bolivia

Clear

Americas · Rank 36 of 114 · Government & security

63 HighRequirement heat, out of 100

What drives the score

Evidence: Actual
Scale: Medium HS 8710 imports USD 14.7m in 2019
Threat: No dated threat listing
Live: No tracked procurement yet

Horizon: NextDocumented need, no live tender
Confidence: HighPurchase data or live procurement

By product family
Family	Heat	Evidence	Access
Government & security	63	Actual, medium	Open · P1
Commercial	0	None found	Open · None
Spares & service	44	Forecast, medium	Open · P1

Country ranking

114 of 194 countries show a signal · Government & security · Requirement

Rank	Country	Heat	Band	Live	Evidence	Horizon	Confidence	Workbook
1	UkraineEurope	98	Very high	—	Actual	Now	High	P2
2	NigeriaAfrica	94	Very high	+1	Actual	Now	High	P2
3	Afghanistan HoldAsia and Middle East	88	Very high	+6	Actual	Now	High	Hold
4	IsraelAsia and Middle East	85	Very high	+3	Actual	Now	High	Closed
5	PolandEurope	83	Very high	+8	Actual	Now	High	P2
6	DR CongoAfrica	81	Very high	—	Actual	Next	High	P1
7	PakistanAsia and Middle East	80	High	+2	Actual	Next	High	Closed
8	United StatesAmericas	79	High	+4	Actual	Now	High	P2
9	NorwayEurope	79	High	+4	Actual	Now	High	P2
10	BrazilAmericas	78	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
11	CanadaAmericas	77	High	+2	Actual	Next	High	P2
12	NetherlandsEurope	77	High	+2	Actual	Next	High	P2
13	AustraliaOceania	75	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
14	BelgiumEurope	75	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
15	BotswanaAfrica	75	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P1
16	ColombiaAmericas	75	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P1
17	DenmarkEurope	75	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
18	IndonesiaAsia and Middle East	75	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
19	JapanAsia and Middle East	75	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
20	LithuaniaEurope	75	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
21	PhilippinesAsia and Middle East	75	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P1
22	RomaniaEurope	75	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
23	Saudi ArabiaAsia and Middle East	75	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
24	South KoreaAsia and Middle East	75	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
25	SpainEurope	75	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
26	SwitzerlandEurope	75	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
27	ThailandAsia and Middle East	75	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
28	EstoniaEurope	71	High	+8	Actual	Now	High	P2
29	PortugalEurope	71	High	+8	Actual	Now	High	P2
30	IraqAsia and Middle East	71	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P1
31	UgandaAfrica	71	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P1
32	LatviaEurope	66	High	+3	Actual	Next	High	P2
33	MaliAfrica	66	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
34	NigerAfrica	66	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
35	CameroonAfrica	66	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P1
36	BoliviaAmericas	63	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P1
37	CroatiaEurope	63	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
38	Côte d'IvoireAfrica	63	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P1
39	El SalvadorAmericas	63	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P1
40	GhanaAfrica	63	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P1
41	JamaicaAmericas	63	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P1
42	JordanAsia and Middle East	63	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
43	KenyaAfrica	63	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P1
44	NamibiaAfrica	63	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P1
45	NepalAsia and Middle East	63	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P1
46	OmanAsia and Middle East	63	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P1
47	SenegalAfrica	63	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P1
48	SlovakiaEurope	63	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
49	South AfricaAfrica	63	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
50	TajikistanAsia and Middle East	63	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P1
51	TogoAfrica	63	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P1
52	TunisiaAfrica	63	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P1
53	HaitiAmericas	61	High	+16	Forecast	Now	High	P2
54	SomaliaAfrica	60	Elevated	+18	Actual	Now	High	P2
55	LebanonAsia and Middle East	53	Elevated	+15	Forecast	Now	High	P2
56	AngolaAfrica	51	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
57	ChileAmericas	51	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
58	DjiboutiAfrica	51	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
59	EgyptAfrica	51	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
60	GambiaAfrica	51	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
61	KazakhstanAsia and Middle East	51	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
62	LiberiaAfrica	51	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
63	MauritaniaAfrica	51	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
64	MozambiqueAfrica	51	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
65	New ZealandOceania	51	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
66	ZambiaAfrica	51	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
67	GermanyEurope	49	Elevated	+34	Plausible	Now	High	P3
68	SyriaAsia and Middle East	49	Elevated	—	Forecast	Next	Medium	P2
69	Sudan HoldAfrica	49	Elevated	—	Forecast	Next	Medium	Hold
70	LibyaAfrica	48	Elevated	+11	Forecast	Now	Medium	P2
71	Myanmar HoldAsia and Middle East	47	Elevated	—	Forecast	Next	Medium	Hold
72	PalestineAsia and Middle East	47	Elevated	+3	Actual	Next	High	P2
73	MexicoAmericas	44	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
74	Yemen HoldAsia and Middle East	44	Elevated	+3	Forecast	Next	Medium	Hold
75	EcuadorAmericas	42	Elevated	—	Forecast	Next	Medium	P2
76	Burkina FasoAfrica	40	Elevated	—	Forecast	Next	Medium	P2
77	United KingdomEurope	39	Moderate	+23	Plausible	Now	High	P3
78	ChadAfrica	39	Moderate	—	Forecast	Next	Medium	P2
79	Russia HoldEurope	39	Moderate	—	Forecast	Next	Medium	Hold
80	South SudanAfrica	39	Moderate	—	Forecast	Next	Medium	P2
81	Belarus HoldEurope	37	Moderate	—	Forecast	Next	Medium	Hold
82	Central African RepublicAfrica	37	Moderate	—	Forecast	Next	Medium	P2
83	Iran HoldAsia and Middle East	37	Moderate	—	Forecast	Next	Medium	Hold
84	North Korea HoldAsia and Middle East	37	Moderate	—	Forecast	Next	Medium	Hold
85	ItalyEurope	34	Moderate	+19	Plausible	Now	High	P3
86	EthiopiaAfrica	33	Moderate	—	Forecast	Next	Medium	P2
87	HondurasAmericas	29	Moderate	+14	Plausible	Now	Low	P3
88	Republic of the CongoAfrica	24	Moderate	+9	Plausible	Now	Low	P3
89	SwedenEurope	23	Moderate	+7	Plausible	Later	Low	P3
90	GeorgiaAsia and Middle East	18	Low	+3	Plausible	Later	Low	P3
91	MaltaEurope	18	Low	+18	None found	Now	Low	None
92	CzechiaEurope	17	Low	+17	None found	Now	Low	None
93	AustriaEurope	16	Low	+1	Plausible	Later	Low	P3
94	TanzaniaAfrica	16	Low	—	Plausible	Later	Low	P3
95	AlgeriaAfrica	16	Low	—	Plausible	Later	Low	P3
96	BahrainAsia and Middle East	16	Low	—	Plausible	Later	Low	P3
97	BangladeshAsia and Middle East	16	Low	—	Plausible	Later	Low	P3
98	BeninAfrica	16	Low	—	Plausible	Later	Low	P3
99	ChinaAsia and Middle East	16	Low	—	Plausible	Later	Low	P3
100	Cuba HoldAmericas	16	Low	—	Plausible	Later	Low	Hold
101	FranceEurope	16	Low	—	Plausible	Later	Low	P3
102	GabonAfrica	16	Low	—	Plausible	Later	Low	P3
103	GuatemalaAmericas	16	Low	—	Plausible	Later	Low	P3
104	GuineaAfrica	16	Low	—	Plausible	Later	Low	P3
105	IndiaAsia and Middle East	16	Low	—	Plausible	Later	Low	P3
106	IrelandEurope	16	Low	—	Plausible	Later	Low	P3
107	KuwaitAsia and Middle East	16	Low	—	Plausible	Later	Low	P3
108	LuxembourgEurope	16	Low	—	Plausible	Later	Low	P3
109	Papua New GuineaOceania	16	Low	—	Plausible	Later	Low	P3
110	QatarAsia and Middle East	16	Low	—	Plausible	Later	Low	P3
111	RwandaAfrica	16	Low	—	Plausible	Later	Low	P3
112	TürkiyeAsia and Middle East	16	Low	—	Plausible	Later	Low	P3
113	United Arab EmiratesAsia and Middle East	16	Low	—	Plausible	Later	Low	P3
114	Venezuela HoldAmericas	16	Low	—	Plausible	Later	Low	Hold

Show all 114 countries

How heat is scored

Heat measures how plausible a present requirement is, not how large a sale would be. Each country is scored separately for government and security vehicles, commercial vehicles, and spares and service, because a market can be closed for personnel carriers and open for service work.

structural  = 100 × evidence × (0.35 + 0.40 × scale + 0.25 × threat)
heat        = structural + (100 − structural) × 0.40 × live
addressable = heat × access
all segments = 0.6 × strongest segment + 0.4 × mean of the three

Evidence gates the score. Without a documented purchase, budget, mandate, counted fleet or dated threat listing, scale and threat cannot create a requirement. Unknown scale counts as 0.25, not zero: the baseline records missing measurement, not missing demand.

Live procurement confirms; it does not size. Published programmes and notices awaiting review add weight by stage, with a 120-day half-life and a 25% boost while a tender is open. At saturation they close 40% of the gap to 100.

Access is a separate lens. The requirement lens shows need regardless of supplier. The addressable lens discounts contested markets to 70% and closed markets to 15%. Countries under sanctions or embargo exposure are hatched in both lenses and score zero when addressable.

Input weights
Evidence	Actual 1.00 · Forecast 0.70 · Plausible 0.35 · None 0
Scale	Large 1.00 · Medium 0.70 · Small 0.40 · Unknown 0.25
Threat	Conflict index up to 0.60 · US Level 4 advisory 0.30 · other dated data 0.10 · capped at 1
Live stage	Tender 1.0 · Evaluation 0.9 · Planning 0.8 · Award 0.6 · Production 0.4 · Service 0.3 · Notice in review 0.35
Access	Open 1.00 · Contested 0.70 · Closed 0.15 · Hold 0

Check against the baseline workbook
Workbook priority	Countries	Median addressable baseline
P1	21	53
P2	53	42
P3	28	13
None	82	0
Hold	10	0

The model keeps the workbook’s order: P1 above P2 above P3. Baseline built 18 September 2026 from customs records, procurement budgets, regulatory mandates, fleet disclosures and threat datasets. HS 8710 understates civilian armoured SUVs and cash-in-transit vehicles. Heat is a prompt for research, not a forecast of orders or a compliance clearance.