defense.autoArmoured vehicle procurement
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Heatmap

Where armoured vehicle requirements are most plausible, country by country.

Scored from a 194-country baseline of customs, budget, mandate and threat evidence, then adjusted as tenders and notices arrive from the live sources.

RequirementAddressable
Addressable heat · Spares & service Live · computed · 142 programmes, 0 notices in review
World map of armoured vehicle requirement heat Countries are shaded from low to very high heat. The country ranking below the map lists the same values.
  1. Low1–19
  2. Moderate20–39
  3. Elevated40–59
  4. High60–79
  5. Very high80–100
  • No signal
  • Compliance hold

Country ranking

86 of 194 countries show a signal · Spares & service · Addressable
RankCountryHeatBandLiveEvidenceHorizonConfidenceWorkbook
1 SomaliaAfrica 72 High +12 Actual Now High P2
2 MaliAfrica 66 High — Actual Next High P2
3 NigeriaAfrica 65 High +8 Actual Now High P1
4 BrazilAmericas 63 High — Actual Next High P2
5 DR CongoAfrica 56 Elevated — Actual Next High P1
6 BotswanaAfrica 53 Elevated — Actual Next High P1
7 PhilippinesAsia and Middle East 53 Elevated — Actual Next High P1
8 IraqAsia and Middle East 49 Elevated — Actual Next High P1
9 UgandaAfrica 49 Elevated — Actual Next High P1
10 PolandEurope 47 Elevated +11 Actual Now High P2
11 CameroonAfrica 46 Elevated — Actual Next High P1
12 HaitiAmericas 45 Elevated +22 Forecast Now High P3
13 PakistanAsia and Middle East 45 Elevated +3 Actual Next High P2
14 BoliviaAmericas 44 Elevated — Actual Next High P1
15 ColombiaAmericas 44 Elevated — Actual Next High P1
16 Côte d'IvoireAfrica 44 Elevated — Actual Next High P1
17 GhanaAfrica 44 Elevated — Actual Next High P1
18 NamibiaAfrica 44 Elevated — Actual Next High P1
19 NepalAsia and Middle East 44 Elevated — Actual Next High P1
20 OmanAsia and Middle East 44 Elevated — Actual Next High P1
21 United StatesAmericas 42 Elevated +5 Actual Now High P2
22 NorwayEurope 42 Elevated +5 Actual Now High P2
23 CanadaAmericas 40 Moderate +3 Actual Next High P2
24 EstoniaEurope 40 Moderate +9 Actual Now High P2
25 NetherlandsEurope 39 Moderate +3 Actual Next High P2
26 PortugalEurope 39 Moderate +9 Actual Now High P2
27 South SudanAfrica 39 Moderate — Forecast Next Medium P2
28 LebanonAsia and Middle East 38 Moderate +19 Forecast Now High P3
29 AustraliaOceania 37 Moderate — Actual Next High P2
30 BelgiumEurope 37 Moderate — Actual Next High P2
31 DenmarkEurope 37 Moderate — Actual Next High P2
32 IndonesiaAsia and Middle East 37 Moderate — Actual Next High P2
33 JapanAsia and Middle East 37 Moderate — Actual Next High P2
34 LithuaniaEurope 37 Moderate — Actual Next High P2
35 RomaniaEurope 37 Moderate — Actual Next High P2
36 South KoreaAsia and Middle East 37 Moderate — Actual Next High P2
37 SpainEurope 37 Moderate — Actual Next High P2
38 SwitzerlandEurope 37 Moderate — Actual Next High P2
39 ThailandAsia and Middle East 37 Moderate — Actual Next High P2
40 UkraineEurope 36 Moderate +13 Actual Now High P3
41 El SalvadorAmericas 36 Moderate — Actual Next High P2
42 JamaicaAmericas 36 Moderate — Actual Next High P2
43 KenyaAfrica 36 Moderate — Actual Next High P2
44 SenegalAfrica 36 Moderate — Actual Next High P2
45 TajikistanAsia and Middle East 36 Moderate — Actual Next High P2
46 TogoAfrica 36 Moderate — Actual Next High P2
47 TunisiaAfrica 36 Moderate — Actual Next High P2
48 LatviaEurope 34 Moderate +3 Actual Next High P2
49 LibyaAfrica 33 Moderate +14 Forecast Now Medium P3
50 SlovakiaEurope 31 Moderate — Actual Next High P2
51 South AfricaAfrica 31 Moderate — Actual Next High P2
52 GermanyEurope 28 Moderate +28 Plausible Now High None
53 PalestineAsia and Middle East 26 Moderate +4 Actual Next High P3
54 CroatiaEurope 25 Moderate — Actual Next High P2
55 JordanAsia and Middle East 25 Moderate — Actual Next High P2
56 SyriaAsia and Middle East 25 Moderate — Forecast Next Medium P3
57 NigerAfrica 23 Moderate — Actual Next High P3
58 MexicoAmericas 22 Moderate — Actual Next High P3
59 EcuadorAmericas 21 Moderate — Forecast Next Medium P3
60 Central African RepublicAfrica 21 Moderate — Forecast Next Medium P3
61 Burkina FasoAfrica 20 Moderate — Forecast Next Medium P3
62 ChadAfrica 19 Low — Forecast Next Medium P3
63 United KingdomEurope 19 Low +19 Plausible Now High None
64 AngolaAfrica 18 Low — Actual Next High P3
65 ChileAmericas 18 Low — Actual Next High P3
66 DjiboutiAfrica 18 Low — Actual Next High P3
67 GambiaAfrica 18 Low — Actual Next High P3
68 KazakhstanAsia and Middle East 18 Low — Actual Next High P3
69 LiberiaAfrica 18 Low — Actual Next High P3
70 MauritaniaAfrica 18 Low — Actual Next High P3
71 MozambiqueAfrica 18 Low — Actual Next High P3
72 ZambiaAfrica 18 Low — Actual Next High P3
73 MaltaEurope 18 Low +18 None found Now Low None
74 EthiopiaAfrica 17 Low — Forecast Next Medium P3
75 HondurasAmericas 16 Low +16 Plausible Now Low None
76 ItalyEurope 15 Low +15 Plausible Now High None
77 EgyptAfrica 13 Low — Actual Next High P3
78 New ZealandOceania 13 Low — Actual Next High P3
79 CzechiaEurope 12 Low +12 None found Now Low None
80 Saudi ArabiaAsia and Middle East 11 Low — Actual Next High P3
81 Republic of the CongoAfrica 10 Low +10 Plausible Now Low None
82 SwedenEurope 6 Low +6 Plausible Later Low None
83 IsraelAsia and Middle East 5 Low +2 Actual Now High Closed
84 GeorgiaAsia and Middle East 3 Low +3 Plausible Later Low None
85 AustriaEurope 1 Low +1 Plausible Later Low None
86 TanzaniaAfrica 0 No signal — Plausible Later Low None
Show all 86 countries

How heat is scored

Heat measures how plausible a present requirement is, not how large a sale would be. Each country is scored separately for government and security vehicles, commercial vehicles, and spares and service, because a market can be closed for personnel carriers and open for service work.

structural  = 100 × evidence × (0.35 + 0.40 × scale + 0.25 × threat)
heat        = structural + (100 − structural) × 0.40 × live
addressable = heat × access
all segments = 0.6 × strongest segment + 0.4 × mean of the three

Evidence gates the score. Without a documented purchase, budget, mandate, counted fleet or dated threat listing, scale and threat cannot create a requirement. Unknown scale counts as 0.25, not zero: the baseline records missing measurement, not missing demand.

Live procurement confirms; it does not size. Published programmes and notices awaiting review add weight by stage, with a 120-day half-life and a 25% boost while a tender is open. At saturation they close 40% of the gap to 100.

Access is a separate lens. The requirement lens shows need regardless of supplier. The addressable lens discounts contested markets to 70% and closed markets to 15%. Countries under sanctions or embargo exposure are hatched in both lenses and score zero when addressable.

Input weights
EvidenceActual 1.00 · Forecast 0.70 · Plausible 0.35 · None 0
ScaleLarge 1.00 · Medium 0.70 · Small 0.40 · Unknown 0.25
ThreatConflict index up to 0.60 · US Level 4 advisory 0.30 · other dated data 0.10 · capped at 1
Live stageTender 1.0 · Evaluation 0.9 · Planning 0.8 · Award 0.6 · Production 0.4 · Service 0.3 · Notice in review 0.35
AccessOpen 1.00 · Contested 0.70 · Closed 0.15 · Hold 0
Check against the baseline workbook
Workbook priorityCountriesMedian addressable baseline
P12153
P25342
P32813
None820
Hold100

The model keeps the workbook’s order: P1 above P2 above P3. Baseline built 18 September 2026 from customs records, procurement budgets, regulatory mandates, fleet disclosures and threat datasets. HS 8710 understates civilian armoured SUVs and cash-in-transit vehicles. Heat is a prompt for research, not a forecast of orders or a compliance clearance.