Heatmap

Where armoured vehicle requirements are most plausible, country by country.

Scored from a 194-country baseline of customs, budget, mandate and threat evidence, then adjusted as tenders and notices arrive from the live sources.

Requirement Addressable

Requirement heat · All segments Live · computed 21:02 UTC · 142 programmes, 0 notices in review

Low1–19
Moderate20–39
Elevated40–59
High60–79
Very high80–100

No signal
Compliance hold
Buying hubs

Afghanistan

Clear

Asia and Middle East · Rank 4 of 114 · All segments

82 Very highRequirement heat, out of 100

Compliance hold. Sanctions or embargo exposure. Get a written compliance ruling before any contact.

What drives the score

Evidence: Actual
Scale: Large HS 8710 imports USD 92.5m in 2019
Threat: US travel advisory Level 4
Live: 14 programmes, 1 open for bids

Horizon: NowProcurement is active
Confidence: HighPurchase data or live procurement

By product family
Family	Heat	Evidence	Access
Government & security	88	Actual, large	Hold · Hold
Commercial	58	Forecast	Hold · Hold
Spares & service	67	Forecast, medium	Hold · Hold

Tracked programmes

Armoured Vehicle Maintenance — AfghanistanTender notice · 2026-08-26
Establishment of Long Term Arrangement for Maintenance and repair of UNICEF Soft skin and armored vehicles - vehicle types include (70,76,100,200, 300 Series, HINO truck Diesel and petrol) And FORD RangersTender notice · 2026-08-10
Maintenance, services, and repairs for Q3 & Q4 2026 for armored vehiclesNot confirmed · open for bids · 2026-09-27
Provision of Maintenance Services, Repairs, and Spare Parts for Armored Vehicles in multiple provinces in Afghanistan - Q2-2026Tender notice · 2026-05-26

Country ranking

114 of 194 countries show a signal · All segments · Requirement

Rank	Country	Heat	Band	Live	Evidence	Horizon	Confidence	Workbook
1	NigeriaAfrica	89	Very high	+3	Actual	Now	High	P1
2	BrazilAmericas	88	Very high	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
3	UkraineEurope	84	Very high	+3	Actual	Now	High	P2
4	Afghanistan HoldAsia and Middle East	82	Very high	+10	Actual	Now	High	Hold
5	MexicoAmericas	77	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
6	PakistanAsia and Middle East	76	High	+2	Actual	Next	High	P2
7	PolandEurope	74	High	+12	Actual	Now	High	P2
8	DR CongoAfrica	72	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P1
9	IsraelAsia and Middle East	71	High	+6	Actual	Now	High	P3
10	SomaliaAfrica	69	High	+14	Actual	Now	High	P2
11	United StatesAmericas	68	High	+6	Actual	Now	High	P2
12	NorwayEurope	68	High	+6	Actual	Now	High	P2
13	CanadaAmericas	66	High	+4	Actual	Next	High	P2
14	NetherlandsEurope	65	High	+3	Actual	Next	High	P2
15	IraqAsia and Middle East	63	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P1
16	UgandaAfrica	63	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P1
17	ColombiaAmericas	63	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P1
18	EstoniaEurope	63	High	+11	Actual	Now	High	P2
19	MaliAfrica	63	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
20	PortugalEurope	62	High	+10	Actual	Now	High	P2
21	AustraliaOceania	62	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
22	BelgiumEurope	62	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
23	BotswanaAfrica	62	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P1
24	DenmarkEurope	62	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
25	IndonesiaAsia and Middle East	62	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
26	JapanAsia and Middle East	62	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
27	LithuaniaEurope	62	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
28	PhilippinesAsia and Middle East	62	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P1
29	RomaniaEurope	62	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
30	South KoreaAsia and Middle East	62	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
31	SpainEurope	62	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
32	SwitzerlandEurope	62	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
33	ThailandAsia and Middle East	62	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
34	Saudi ArabiaAsia and Middle East	59	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
35	HaitiAmericas	59	Elevated	+17	Forecast	Now	High	P2
36	CameroonAfrica	59	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P1
37	GhanaAfrica	58	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P1
38	NigerAfrica	57	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
39	PalestineAsia and Middle East	57	Elevated	+2	Actual	Next	High	P2
40	LatviaEurope	56	Elevated	+4	Actual	Next	High	P2
41	OmanAsia and Middle East	54	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P1
42	South AfricaAfrica	54	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
43	JordanAsia and Middle East	53	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
44	KenyaAfrica	53	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P1
45	SenegalAfrica	53	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P1
46	TogoAfrica	53	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P1
47	BoliviaAmericas	52	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P1
48	Côte d'IvoireAfrica	52	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P1
49	NamibiaAfrica	52	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P1
50	NepalAsia and Middle East	52	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P1
51	SlovakiaEurope	52	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
52	CroatiaEurope	51	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
53	El SalvadorAmericas	51	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P1
54	JamaicaAmericas	51	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P1
55	LebanonAsia and Middle East	51	Elevated	+15	Forecast	Now	High	P2
56	TajikistanAsia and Middle East	51	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P1
57	TunisiaAfrica	51	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P1
58	GermanyEurope	47	Elevated	+35	Plausible	Now	High	P3
59	LibyaAfrica	46	Elevated	+12	Forecast	Now	Medium	P2
60	SyriaAsia and Middle East	46	Elevated	—	Forecast	Next	Medium	P2
61	Sudan HoldAfrica	46	Elevated	—	Forecast	Next	Medium	Hold
62	Myanmar HoldAsia and Middle East	44	Elevated	—	Forecast	Next	Medium	Hold
63	AngolaAfrica	42	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
64	ChileAmericas	42	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
65	DjiboutiAfrica	42	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
66	EgyptAfrica	42	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
67	GambiaAfrica	42	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
68	KazakhstanAsia and Middle East	42	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
69	LiberiaAfrica	42	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
70	MauritaniaAfrica	42	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
71	MozambiqueAfrica	42	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
72	New ZealandOceania	42	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
73	ZambiaAfrica	42	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
74	Yemen HoldAsia and Middle East	41	Elevated	+4	Forecast	Next	Medium	Hold
75	EcuadorAmericas	39	Moderate	—	Forecast	Next	Medium	P2
76	South SudanAfrica	39	Moderate	—	Forecast	Next	Medium	P2
77	Burkina FasoAfrica	38	Moderate	—	Forecast	Next	Medium	P2
78	ChadAfrica	36	Moderate	—	Forecast	Next	Medium	P2
79	Russia HoldEurope	36	Moderate	—	Forecast	Next	Medium	Hold
80	United KingdomEurope	36	Moderate	+24	Plausible	Now	High	P3
81	Central African RepublicAfrica	35	Moderate	—	Forecast	Next	Medium	P2
82	Belarus HoldEurope	34	Moderate	—	Forecast	Next	Medium	Hold
83	Iran HoldAsia and Middle East	34	Moderate	—	Forecast	Next	Medium	Hold
84	North Korea HoldAsia and Middle East	34	Moderate	—	Forecast	Next	Medium	Hold
85	EthiopiaAfrica	31	Moderate	—	Forecast	Next	Medium	P2
86	ItalyEurope	31	Moderate	+20	Plausible	Now	High	P3
87	HondurasAmericas	27	Moderate	+14	Plausible	Now	Low	P3
88	Republic of the CongoAfrica	22	Moderate	+9	Plausible	Now	Low	P3
89	SwedenEurope	19	Low	+8	Plausible	Later	Low	P3
90	MaltaEurope	18	Low	+18	None found	Now	Low	None
91	CzechiaEurope	17	Low	+17	None found	Now	Low	None
92	GeorgiaAsia and Middle East	16	Low	+3	Plausible	Later	Low	P3
93	TanzaniaAfrica	14	Low	—	Plausible	Later	Low	P3
94	AlgeriaAfrica	14	Low	—	Plausible	Later	Low	P3
95	BahrainAsia and Middle East	14	Low	—	Plausible	Later	Low	P3
96	BangladeshAsia and Middle East	14	Low	—	Plausible	Later	Low	P3
97	BeninAfrica	14	Low	—	Plausible	Later	Low	P3
98	Cuba HoldAmericas	14	Low	—	Plausible	Later	Low	Hold
99	GabonAfrica	14	Low	—	Plausible	Later	Low	P3
100	GuatemalaAmericas	14	Low	—	Plausible	Later	Low	P3
101	GuineaAfrica	14	Low	—	Plausible	Later	Low	P3
102	IndiaAsia and Middle East	14	Low	—	Plausible	Later	Low	P3
103	KuwaitAsia and Middle East	14	Low	—	Plausible	Later	Low	P3
104	Papua New GuineaOceania	14	Low	—	Plausible	Later	Low	P3
105	QatarAsia and Middle East	14	Low	—	Plausible	Later	Low	P3
106	RwandaAfrica	14	Low	—	Plausible	Later	Low	P3
107	United Arab EmiratesAsia and Middle East	14	Low	—	Plausible	Later	Low	P3
108	Venezuela HoldAmericas	14	Low	—	Plausible	Later	Low	Hold
109	AustriaEurope	12	Low	+1	Plausible	Later	Low	P3
110	ChinaAsia and Middle East	12	Low	—	Plausible	Later	Low	P3
111	FranceEurope	12	Low	—	Plausible	Later	Low	P3
112	IrelandEurope	12	Low	—	Plausible	Later	Low	P3
113	LuxembourgEurope	12	Low	—	Plausible	Later	Low	P3
114	TürkiyeAsia and Middle East	12	Low	—	Plausible	Later	Low	P3

Show all 114 countries

How heat is scored

Heat measures how plausible a present requirement is, not how large a sale would be. Each country is scored separately for government and security vehicles, commercial vehicles, and spares and service, because a market can be closed for personnel carriers and open for service work.

structural  = 100 × evidence × (0.35 + 0.40 × scale + 0.25 × threat)
heat        = structural + (100 − structural) × 0.40 × live
addressable = heat × access
all segments = 0.6 × strongest segment + 0.4 × mean of the three

Evidence gates the score. Without a documented purchase, budget, mandate, counted fleet or dated threat listing, scale and threat cannot create a requirement. Unknown scale counts as 0.25, not zero: the baseline records missing measurement, not missing demand.

Live procurement confirms; it does not size. Published programmes and notices awaiting review add weight by stage, with a 120-day half-life and a 25% boost while a tender is open. At saturation they close 40% of the gap to 100.

Access is a separate lens. The requirement lens shows need regardless of supplier. The addressable lens discounts contested markets to 70% and closed markets to 15%. Countries under sanctions or embargo exposure are hatched in both lenses and score zero when addressable.

Input weights
Evidence	Actual 1.00 · Forecast 0.70 · Plausible 0.35 · None 0
Scale	Large 1.00 · Medium 0.70 · Small 0.40 · Unknown 0.25
Threat	Conflict index up to 0.60 · US Level 4 advisory 0.30 · other dated data 0.10 · capped at 1
Live stage	Tender 1.0 · Evaluation 0.9 · Planning 0.8 · Award 0.6 · Production 0.4 · Service 0.3 · Notice in review 0.35
Access	Open 1.00 · Contested 0.70 · Closed 0.15 · Hold 0

Check against the baseline workbook
Workbook priority	Countries	Median addressable baseline
P1	21	53
P2	53	42
P3	28	13
None	82	0
Hold	10	0

The model keeps the workbook’s order: P1 above P2 above P3. Baseline built 18 September 2026 from customs records, procurement budgets, regulatory mandates, fleet disclosures and threat datasets. HS 8710 understates civilian armoured SUVs and cash-in-transit vehicles. Heat is a prompt for research, not a forecast of orders or a compliance clearance.