Heatmap

Where armoured vehicle requirements are most plausible, country by country.

Scored from a 194-country baseline of customs, budget, mandate and threat evidence, then adjusted as tenders and notices arrive from the live sources.

Requirement Addressable

Addressable heat · Government & security Live · computed 22:12 UTC · 142 programmes, 0 notices in review

Low1–19
Moderate20–39
Elevated40–59
High60–79
Very high80–100

No signal
Compliance hold
Buying hubs

Afghanistan

Clear

Asia and Middle East · Government & security

0 No signalAddressable heat, out of 100

Compliance hold. Sanctions or embargo exposure. Get a written compliance ruling before any contact.

What drives the score

Evidence: Actual
Scale: Large HS 8710 imports USD 92.5m in 2019
Threat: US travel advisory Level 4
Live: 14 programmes, 1 open for bids

Horizon: NowProcurement is active
Confidence: HighPurchase data or live procurement

By product family
Family	Evidence	Access
Government & security	Actual, large	Hold · Hold
Commercial	Forecast	Hold · Hold
Spares & service	Forecast, medium	Hold · Hold

Tracked programmes

Armoured Vehicle Maintenance — AfghanistanTender notice · 2026-08-26
Establishment of Long Term Arrangement for Maintenance and repair of UNICEF Soft skin and armored vehicles - vehicle types include (70,76,100,200, 300 Series, HINO truck Diesel and petrol) And FORD RangersTender notice · 2026-08-10
Maintenance, services, and repairs for Q3 & Q4 2026 for armored vehiclesNot confirmed · open for bids · 2026-09-27
Provision of Maintenance Services, Repairs, and Spare Parts for Armored Vehicles in multiple provinces in Afghanistan - Q2-2026Tender notice · 2026-05-26

Country ranking

104 of 194 countries show a signal · Government & security · Addressable

Rank	Country	Heat	Band	Live	Evidence	Horizon	Confidence	Workbook
1	DR CongoAfrica	81	Very high	—	Actual	Next	High	P1
2	BotswanaAfrica	75	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P1
3	ColombiaAmericas	75	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P1
4	PhilippinesAsia and Middle East	75	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P1
5	IraqAsia and Middle East	71	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P1
6	UgandaAfrica	71	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P1
7	UkraineEurope	69	High	—	Actual	Now	High	P2
8	MaliAfrica	66	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
9	NigerAfrica	66	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
10	NigeriaAfrica	66	High	+1	Actual	Now	High	P2
11	CameroonAfrica	66	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P1
12	BoliviaAmericas	63	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P1
13	Côte d'IvoireAfrica	63	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P1
14	El SalvadorAmericas	63	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P1
15	GhanaAfrica	63	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P1
16	JamaicaAmericas	63	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P1
17	KenyaAfrica	63	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P1
18	NamibiaAfrica	63	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P1
19	NepalAsia and Middle East	63	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P1
20	OmanAsia and Middle East	63	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P1
21	SenegalAfrica	63	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P1
22	TajikistanAsia and Middle East	63	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P1
23	TogoAfrica	63	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P1
24	TunisiaAfrica	63	High	—	Actual	Next	High	P1
25	HaitiAmericas	61	High	+16	Forecast	Now	High	P2
26	SomaliaAfrica	60	Elevated	+18	Actual	Now	High	P2
27	PolandEurope	58	Elevated	+6	Actual	Now	High	P2
28	United StatesAmericas	55	Elevated	+3	Actual	Now	High	P2
29	NorwayEurope	55	Elevated	+3	Actual	Now	High	P2
30	BrazilAmericas	55	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
31	CanadaAmericas	54	Elevated	+2	Actual	Next	High	P2
32	NetherlandsEurope	54	Elevated	+1	Actual	Next	High	P2
33	LebanonAsia and Middle East	53	Elevated	+15	Forecast	Now	High	P2
34	AustraliaOceania	53	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
35	BelgiumEurope	53	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
36	DenmarkEurope	53	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
37	IndonesiaAsia and Middle East	53	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
38	JapanAsia and Middle East	53	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
39	LithuaniaEurope	53	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
40	RomaniaEurope	53	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
41	Saudi ArabiaAsia and Middle East	53	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
42	South KoreaAsia and Middle East	53	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
43	SpainEurope	53	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
44	SwitzerlandEurope	53	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
45	ThailandAsia and Middle East	53	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
46	AngolaAfrica	51	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
47	ChileAmericas	51	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
48	DjiboutiAfrica	51	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
49	GambiaAfrica	51	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
50	KazakhstanAsia and Middle East	51	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
51	LiberiaAfrica	51	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
52	MauritaniaAfrica	51	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
53	MozambiqueAfrica	51	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
54	ZambiaAfrica	51	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
55	EstoniaEurope	50	Elevated	+6	Actual	Now	High	P2
56	PortugalEurope	50	Elevated	+6	Actual	Now	High	P2
57	SyriaAsia and Middle East	49	Elevated	—	Forecast	Next	Medium	P2
58	LibyaAfrica	48	Elevated	+11	Forecast	Now	Medium	P2
59	PalestineAsia and Middle East	47	Elevated	+3	Actual	Next	High	P2
60	LatviaEurope	46	Elevated	+2	Actual	Next	High	P2
61	CroatiaEurope	44	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
62	JordanAsia and Middle East	44	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
63	SlovakiaEurope	44	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
64	South AfricaAfrica	44	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
65	MexicoAmericas	44	Elevated	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
66	EcuadorAmericas	42	Elevated	—	Forecast	Next	Medium	P2
67	Burkina FasoAfrica	40	Elevated	—	Forecast	Next	Medium	P2
68	ChadAfrica	39	Moderate	—	Forecast	Next	Medium	P2
69	South SudanAfrica	39	Moderate	—	Forecast	Next	Medium	P2
70	Central African RepublicAfrica	37	Moderate	—	Forecast	Next	Medium	P2
71	EgyptAfrica	36	Moderate	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
72	New ZealandOceania	36	Moderate	—	Actual	Next	High	P2
73	GermanyEurope	35	Moderate	+24	Plausible	Now	High	P3
74	EthiopiaAfrica	33	Moderate	—	Forecast	Next	Medium	P2
75	HondurasAmericas	29	Moderate	+14	Plausible	Now	Low	P3
76	United KingdomEurope	27	Moderate	+16	Plausible	Now	High	P3
77	Republic of the CongoAfrica	24	Moderate	+9	Plausible	Now	Low	P3
78	ItalyEurope	24	Moderate	+13	Plausible	Now	High	P3
79	GeorgiaAsia and Middle East	18	Low	+3	Plausible	Later	Low	P3
80	MaltaEurope	18	Low	+18	None found	Now	Low	None
81	SwedenEurope	16	Low	+5	Plausible	Later	Low	P3
82	TanzaniaAfrica	16	Low	—	Plausible	Later	Low	P3
83	AlgeriaAfrica	16	Low	—	Plausible	Later	Low	P3
84	BahrainAsia and Middle East	16	Low	—	Plausible	Later	Low	P3
85	BangladeshAsia and Middle East	16	Low	—	Plausible	Later	Low	P3
86	BeninAfrica	16	Low	—	Plausible	Later	Low	P3
87	GabonAfrica	16	Low	—	Plausible	Later	Low	P3
88	GuatemalaAmericas	16	Low	—	Plausible	Later	Low	P3
89	GuineaAfrica	16	Low	—	Plausible	Later	Low	P3
90	KuwaitAsia and Middle East	16	Low	—	Plausible	Later	Low	P3
91	Papua New GuineaOceania	16	Low	—	Plausible	Later	Low	P3
92	QatarAsia and Middle East	16	Low	—	Plausible	Later	Low	P3
93	RwandaAfrica	16	Low	—	Plausible	Later	Low	P3
94	IsraelAsia and Middle East	13	Low	—	Actual	Now	High	Closed
95	PakistanAsia and Middle East	12	Low	—	Actual	Next	High	Closed
96	CzechiaEurope	12	Low	+12	None found	Now	Low	None
97	AustriaEurope	12	Low	+1	Plausible	Later	Low	P3
98	ChinaAsia and Middle East	11	Low	—	Plausible	Later	Low	P3
99	FranceEurope	11	Low	—	Plausible	Later	Low	P3
100	IndiaAsia and Middle East	11	Low	—	Plausible	Later	Low	P3
101	IrelandEurope	11	Low	—	Plausible	Later	Low	P3
102	LuxembourgEurope	11	Low	—	Plausible	Later	Low	P3
103	TürkiyeAsia and Middle East	11	Low	—	Plausible	Later	Low	P3
104	United Arab EmiratesAsia and Middle East	11	Low	—	Plausible	Later	Low	P3

Show all 104 countries

How heat is scored

Heat measures how plausible a present requirement is, not how large a sale would be. Each country is scored separately for government and security vehicles, commercial vehicles, and spares and service, because a market can be closed for personnel carriers and open for service work.

structural  = 100 × evidence × (0.35 + 0.40 × scale + 0.25 × threat)
heat        = structural + (100 − structural) × 0.40 × live
addressable = heat × access
all segments = 0.6 × strongest segment + 0.4 × mean of the three

Evidence gates the score. Without a documented purchase, budget, mandate, counted fleet or dated threat listing, scale and threat cannot create a requirement. Unknown scale counts as 0.25, not zero: the baseline records missing measurement, not missing demand.

Live procurement confirms; it does not size. Published programmes and notices awaiting review add weight by stage, with a 120-day half-life and a 25% boost while a tender is open. At saturation they close 40% of the gap to 100.

Access is a separate lens. The requirement lens shows need regardless of supplier. The addressable lens discounts contested markets to 70% and closed markets to 15%. Countries under sanctions or embargo exposure are hatched in both lenses and score zero when addressable.

Input weights
Evidence	Actual 1.00 · Forecast 0.70 · Plausible 0.35 · None 0
Scale	Large 1.00 · Medium 0.70 · Small 0.40 · Unknown 0.25
Threat	Conflict index up to 0.60 · US Level 4 advisory 0.30 · other dated data 0.10 · capped at 1
Live stage	Tender 1.0 · Evaluation 0.9 · Planning 0.8 · Award 0.6 · Production 0.4 · Service 0.3 · Notice in review 0.35
Access	Open 1.00 · Contested 0.70 · Closed 0.15 · Hold 0

Check against the baseline workbook
Workbook priority	Countries	Median addressable baseline
P1	21	53
P2	53	42
P3	28	13
None	82	0
Hold	10	0

The model keeps the workbook’s order: P1 above P2 above P3. Baseline built 18 September 2026 from customs records, procurement budgets, regulatory mandates, fleet disclosures and threat datasets. HS 8710 understates civilian armoured SUVs and cash-in-transit vehicles. Heat is a prompt for research, not a forecast of orders or a compliance clearance.