defense.autoArmoured vehicle procurement
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Heatmap

Where armoured vehicle requirements are most plausible, country by country.

Scored from a 194-country baseline of customs, budget, mandate and threat evidence, then adjusted as tenders and notices arrive from the live sources.

RequirementAddressable
Requirement heat · Spares & service Live · computed · 142 programmes, 0 notices in review
World map of armoured vehicle requirement heat Countries are shaded from low to very high heat. The country ranking below the map lists the same values.
  1. Low1–19
  2. Moderate20–39
  3. Elevated40–59
  4. High60–79
  5. Very high80–100
  • No signal
  • Compliance hold

Country ranking

94 of 194 countries show a signal · Spares & service · Requirement
RankCountryHeatBandLiveEvidenceHorizonConfidenceWorkbook
1 BrazilAmericas 90 Very high — Actual Next High P2
2 SomaliaAfrica 72 High +12 Actual Now High P2
3 PolandEurope 68 High +15 Actual Now High P2
4 Afghanistan HoldAsia and Middle East 67 High +17 Actual Now High Hold
5 MaliAfrica 66 High — Actual Next High P2
6 NigeriaAfrica 65 High +8 Actual Now High P1
7 PakistanAsia and Middle East 64 High +4 Actual Next High P2
8 United StatesAmericas 60 High +8 Actual Now High P2
9 NorwayEurope 60 Elevated +7 Actual Now High P2
10 CanadaAmericas 57 Elevated +4 Actual Next High P2
11 EstoniaEurope 57 Elevated +13 Actual Now High P2
12 DR CongoAfrica 56 Elevated — Actual Next High P1
13 NetherlandsEurope 56 Elevated +4 Actual Next High P2
14 PortugalEurope 56 Elevated +12 Actual Now High P2
15 AustraliaOceania 53 Elevated — Actual Next High P2
16 BelgiumEurope 53 Elevated — Actual Next High P2
17 BotswanaAfrica 53 Elevated — Actual Next High P1
18 DenmarkEurope 53 Elevated — Actual Next High P2
19 IndonesiaAsia and Middle East 53 Elevated — Actual Next High P2
20 JapanAsia and Middle East 53 Elevated — Actual Next High P2
21 LithuaniaEurope 53 Elevated — Actual Next High P2
22 PhilippinesAsia and Middle East 53 Elevated — Actual Next High P1
23 RomaniaEurope 53 Elevated — Actual Next High P2
24 South KoreaAsia and Middle East 53 Elevated — Actual Next High P2
25 SpainEurope 53 Elevated — Actual Next High P2
26 SwitzerlandEurope 53 Elevated — Actual Next High P2
27 ThailandAsia and Middle East 53 Elevated — Actual Next High P2
28 IraqAsia and Middle East 49 Elevated — Actual Next High P1
29 UgandaAfrica 49 Elevated — Actual Next High P1
30 LatviaEurope 49 Elevated +5 Actual Next High P2
31 CameroonAfrica 46 Elevated — Actual Next High P1
32 HaitiAmericas 45 Elevated +22 Forecast Now High P3
33 BoliviaAmericas 44 Elevated — Actual Next High P1
34 ColombiaAmericas 44 Elevated — Actual Next High P1
35 Côte d'IvoireAfrica 44 Elevated — Actual Next High P1
36 GhanaAfrica 44 Elevated — Actual Next High P1
37 NamibiaAfrica 44 Elevated — Actual Next High P1
38 NepalAsia and Middle East 44 Elevated — Actual Next High P1
39 OmanAsia and Middle East 44 Elevated — Actual Next High P1
40 SlovakiaEurope 44 Elevated — Actual Next High P2
41 South AfricaAfrica 44 Elevated — Actual Next High P2
42 GermanyEurope 40 Elevated +40 Plausible Now High None
43 South SudanAfrica 39 Moderate — Forecast Next Medium P2
44 LebanonAsia and Middle East 38 Moderate +19 Forecast Now High P3
45 UkraineEurope 36 Moderate +13 Actual Now High P3
46 CroatiaEurope 36 Moderate — Actual Next High P2
47 El SalvadorAmericas 36 Moderate — Actual Next High P2
48 JamaicaAmericas 36 Moderate — Actual Next High P2
49 JordanAsia and Middle East 36 Moderate — Actual Next High P2
50 KenyaAfrica 36 Moderate — Actual Next High P2
51 SenegalAfrica 36 Moderate — Actual Next High P2
52 TajikistanAsia and Middle East 36 Moderate — Actual Next High P2
53 TogoAfrica 36 Moderate — Actual Next High P2
54 TunisiaAfrica 36 Moderate — Actual Next High P2
55 LibyaAfrica 33 Moderate +14 Forecast Now Medium P3
56 IsraelAsia and Middle East 32 Moderate +13 Actual Now High Closed
57 United KingdomEurope 28 Moderate +28 Plausible Now High None
58 PalestineAsia and Middle East 26 Moderate +4 Actual Next High P3
59 SyriaAsia and Middle East 25 Moderate — Forecast Next Medium P3
60 Sudan HoldAfrica 25 Moderate — Forecast Next Medium Hold
61 Yemen HoldAsia and Middle East 25 Moderate +4 Forecast Next Medium Hold
62 Myanmar HoldAsia and Middle East 24 Moderate — Forecast Next Medium Hold
63 NigerAfrica 23 Moderate — Actual Next High P3
64 ItalyEurope 22 Moderate +22 Plausible Now High None
65 MexicoAmericas 22 Moderate — Actual Next High P3
66 EcuadorAmericas 21 Moderate — Forecast Next Medium P3
67 Central African RepublicAfrica 21 Moderate — Forecast Next Medium P3
68 Burkina FasoAfrica 20 Moderate — Forecast Next Medium P3
69 ChadAfrica 19 Low — Forecast Next Medium P3
70 Russia HoldEurope 19 Low — Forecast Next Medium Hold
71 Belarus HoldEurope 18 Low — Forecast Next Medium Hold
72 Iran HoldAsia and Middle East 18 Low — Forecast Next Medium Hold
73 North Korea HoldAsia and Middle East 18 Low — Forecast Next Medium Hold
74 AngolaAfrica 18 Low — Actual Next High P3
75 ChileAmericas 18 Low — Actual Next High P3
76 DjiboutiAfrica 18 Low — Actual Next High P3
77 EgyptAfrica 18 Low — Actual Next High P3
78 GambiaAfrica 18 Low — Actual Next High P3
79 KazakhstanAsia and Middle East 18 Low — Actual Next High P3
80 LiberiaAfrica 18 Low — Actual Next High P3
81 MauritaniaAfrica 18 Low — Actual Next High P3
82 MozambiqueAfrica 18 Low — Actual Next High P3
83 New ZealandOceania 18 Low — Actual Next High P3
84 ZambiaAfrica 18 Low — Actual Next High P3
85 MaltaEurope 18 Low +18 None found Now Low None
86 CzechiaEurope 17 Low +17 None found Now Low None
87 EthiopiaAfrica 17 Low — Forecast Next Medium P3
88 HondurasAmericas 16 Low +16 Plausible Now Low None
89 Saudi ArabiaAsia and Middle East 16 Low — Actual Next High P3
90 Republic of the CongoAfrica 10 Low +10 Plausible Now Low None
91 SwedenEurope 9 Low +9 Plausible Later Low None
92 GeorgiaAsia and Middle East 3 Low +3 Plausible Later Low None
93 AustriaEurope 1 Low +1 Plausible Later Low None
94 TanzaniaAfrica 0 No signal — Plausible Later Low None
Show top 20

How heat is scored

Heat measures how plausible a present requirement is, not how large a sale would be. Each country is scored separately for government and security vehicles, commercial vehicles, and spares and service, because a market can be closed for personnel carriers and open for service work.

structural  = 100 × evidence × (0.35 + 0.40 × scale + 0.25 × threat)
heat        = structural + (100 − structural) × 0.40 × live
addressable = heat × access
all segments = 0.6 × strongest segment + 0.4 × mean of the three

Evidence gates the score. Without a documented purchase, budget, mandate, counted fleet or dated threat listing, scale and threat cannot create a requirement. Unknown scale counts as 0.25, not zero: the baseline records missing measurement, not missing demand.

Live procurement confirms; it does not size. Published programmes and notices awaiting review add weight by stage, with a 120-day half-life and a 25% boost while a tender is open. At saturation they close 40% of the gap to 100.

Access is a separate lens. The requirement lens shows need regardless of supplier. The addressable lens discounts contested markets to 70% and closed markets to 15%. Countries under sanctions or embargo exposure are hatched in both lenses and score zero when addressable.

Input weights
EvidenceActual 1.00 · Forecast 0.70 · Plausible 0.35 · None 0
ScaleLarge 1.00 · Medium 0.70 · Small 0.40 · Unknown 0.25
ThreatConflict index up to 0.60 · US Level 4 advisory 0.30 · other dated data 0.10 · capped at 1
Live stageTender 1.0 · Evaluation 0.9 · Planning 0.8 · Award 0.6 · Production 0.4 · Service 0.3 · Notice in review 0.35
AccessOpen 1.00 · Contested 0.70 · Closed 0.15 · Hold 0
Check against the baseline workbook
Workbook priorityCountriesMedian addressable baseline
P12153
P25342
P32813
None820
Hold100

The model keeps the workbook’s order: P1 above P2 above P3. Baseline built 18 September 2026 from customs records, procurement budgets, regulatory mandates, fleet disclosures and threat datasets. HS 8710 understates civilian armoured SUVs and cash-in-transit vehicles. Heat is a prompt for research, not a forecast of orders or a compliance clearance.