defense.autoArmoured vehicle procurement
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Heatmap

Where armoured vehicle requirements are most plausible, country by country.

Scored from a 194-country baseline of customs, budget, mandate and threat evidence, then adjusted as tenders and notices arrive from the live sources.

RequirementAddressable
Requirement heat · All segments Live · computed · 142 programmes, 0 notices in review
World map of armoured vehicle requirement heat Countries are shaded from low to very high heat. The country ranking below the map lists the same values.
  1. Low1–19
  2. Moderate20–39
  3. Elevated40–59
  4. High60–79
  5. Very high80–100
  • No signal
  • Compliance hold

Country ranking

114 of 194 countries show a signal · All segments · Requirement
RankCountryHeatBandLiveEvidenceHorizonConfidenceWorkbook
1 NigeriaAfrica 89 Very high +3 Actual Now High P1
2 BrazilAmericas 88 Very high — Actual Next High P2
3 UkraineEurope 84 Very high +3 Actual Now High P2
4 Afghanistan HoldAsia and Middle East 82 Very high +10 Actual Now High Hold
5 MexicoAmericas 77 High — Actual Next High P2
6 PakistanAsia and Middle East 76 High +2 Actual Next High P2
7 PolandEurope 74 High +12 Actual Now High P2
8 DR CongoAfrica 72 High — Actual Next High P1
9 IsraelAsia and Middle East 71 High +6 Actual Now High P3
10 SomaliaAfrica 69 High +14 Actual Now High P2
11 United StatesAmericas 68 High +6 Actual Now High P2
12 NorwayEurope 68 High +6 Actual Now High P2
13 CanadaAmericas 66 High +4 Actual Next High P2
14 NetherlandsEurope 65 High +3 Actual Next High P2
15 IraqAsia and Middle East 63 High — Actual Next High P1
16 UgandaAfrica 63 High — Actual Next High P1
17 ColombiaAmericas 63 High — Actual Next High P1
18 EstoniaEurope 63 High +11 Actual Now High P2
19 MaliAfrica 63 High — Actual Next High P2
20 PortugalEurope 62 High +10 Actual Now High P2
21 AustraliaOceania 62 High — Actual Next High P2
22 BelgiumEurope 62 High — Actual Next High P2
23 BotswanaAfrica 62 High — Actual Next High P1
24 DenmarkEurope 62 High — Actual Next High P2
25 IndonesiaAsia and Middle East 62 High — Actual Next High P2
26 JapanAsia and Middle East 62 High — Actual Next High P2
27 LithuaniaEurope 62 High — Actual Next High P2
28 PhilippinesAsia and Middle East 62 High — Actual Next High P1
29 RomaniaEurope 62 High — Actual Next High P2
30 South KoreaAsia and Middle East 62 High — Actual Next High P2
31 SpainEurope 62 High — Actual Next High P2
32 SwitzerlandEurope 62 High — Actual Next High P2
33 ThailandAsia and Middle East 62 High — Actual Next High P2
34 Saudi ArabiaAsia and Middle East 59 Elevated — Actual Next High P2
35 HaitiAmericas 59 Elevated +17 Forecast Now High P2
36 CameroonAfrica 59 Elevated — Actual Next High P1
37 GhanaAfrica 58 Elevated — Actual Next High P1
38 NigerAfrica 57 Elevated — Actual Next High P2
39 PalestineAsia and Middle East 57 Elevated +2 Actual Next High P2
40 LatviaEurope 56 Elevated +4 Actual Next High P2
41 OmanAsia and Middle East 54 Elevated — Actual Next High P1
42 South AfricaAfrica 54 Elevated — Actual Next High P2
43 JordanAsia and Middle East 53 Elevated — Actual Next High P2
44 KenyaAfrica 53 Elevated — Actual Next High P1
45 SenegalAfrica 53 Elevated — Actual Next High P1
46 TogoAfrica 53 Elevated — Actual Next High P1
47 BoliviaAmericas 52 Elevated — Actual Next High P1
48 Côte d'IvoireAfrica 52 Elevated — Actual Next High P1
49 NamibiaAfrica 52 Elevated — Actual Next High P1
50 NepalAsia and Middle East 52 Elevated — Actual Next High P1
51 SlovakiaEurope 52 Elevated — Actual Next High P2
52 CroatiaEurope 51 Elevated — Actual Next High P2
53 El SalvadorAmericas 51 Elevated — Actual Next High P1
54 JamaicaAmericas 51 Elevated — Actual Next High P1
55 LebanonAsia and Middle East 51 Elevated +15 Forecast Now High P2
56 TajikistanAsia and Middle East 51 Elevated — Actual Next High P1
57 TunisiaAfrica 51 Elevated — Actual Next High P1
58 GermanyEurope 47 Elevated +35 Plausible Now High P3
59 LibyaAfrica 46 Elevated +12 Forecast Now Medium P2
60 SyriaAsia and Middle East 46 Elevated — Forecast Next Medium P2
61 Sudan HoldAfrica 46 Elevated — Forecast Next Medium Hold
62 Myanmar HoldAsia and Middle East 44 Elevated — Forecast Next Medium Hold
63 AngolaAfrica 42 Elevated — Actual Next High P2
64 ChileAmericas 42 Elevated — Actual Next High P2
65 DjiboutiAfrica 42 Elevated — Actual Next High P2
66 EgyptAfrica 42 Elevated — Actual Next High P2
67 GambiaAfrica 42 Elevated — Actual Next High P2
68 KazakhstanAsia and Middle East 42 Elevated — Actual Next High P2
69 LiberiaAfrica 42 Elevated — Actual Next High P2
70 MauritaniaAfrica 42 Elevated — Actual Next High P2
71 MozambiqueAfrica 42 Elevated — Actual Next High P2
72 New ZealandOceania 42 Elevated — Actual Next High P2
73 ZambiaAfrica 42 Elevated — Actual Next High P2
74 Yemen HoldAsia and Middle East 41 Elevated +4 Forecast Next Medium Hold
75 EcuadorAmericas 39 Moderate — Forecast Next Medium P2
76 South SudanAfrica 39 Moderate — Forecast Next Medium P2
77 Burkina FasoAfrica 38 Moderate — Forecast Next Medium P2
78 ChadAfrica 36 Moderate — Forecast Next Medium P2
79 Russia HoldEurope 36 Moderate — Forecast Next Medium Hold
80 United KingdomEurope 36 Moderate +24 Plausible Now High P3
81 Central African RepublicAfrica 35 Moderate — Forecast Next Medium P2
82 Belarus HoldEurope 34 Moderate — Forecast Next Medium Hold
83 Iran HoldAsia and Middle East 34 Moderate — Forecast Next Medium Hold
84 North Korea HoldAsia and Middle East 34 Moderate — Forecast Next Medium Hold
85 EthiopiaAfrica 31 Moderate — Forecast Next Medium P2
86 ItalyEurope 31 Moderate +20 Plausible Now High P3
87 HondurasAmericas 27 Moderate +14 Plausible Now Low P3
88 Republic of the CongoAfrica 22 Moderate +9 Plausible Now Low P3
89 SwedenEurope 19 Low +8 Plausible Later Low P3
90 MaltaEurope 18 Low +18 None found Now Low None
91 CzechiaEurope 17 Low +17 None found Now Low None
92 GeorgiaAsia and Middle East 16 Low +3 Plausible Later Low P3
93 TanzaniaAfrica 14 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
94 AlgeriaAfrica 14 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
95 BahrainAsia and Middle East 14 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
96 BangladeshAsia and Middle East 14 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
97 BeninAfrica 14 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
98 Cuba HoldAmericas 14 Low — Plausible Later Low Hold
99 GabonAfrica 14 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
100 GuatemalaAmericas 14 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
101 GuineaAfrica 14 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
102 IndiaAsia and Middle East 14 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
103 KuwaitAsia and Middle East 14 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
104 Papua New GuineaOceania 14 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
105 QatarAsia and Middle East 14 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
106 RwandaAfrica 14 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
107 United Arab EmiratesAsia and Middle East 14 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
108 Venezuela HoldAmericas 14 Low — Plausible Later Low Hold
109 AustriaEurope 12 Low +1 Plausible Later Low P3
110 ChinaAsia and Middle East 12 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
111 FranceEurope 12 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
112 IrelandEurope 12 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
113 LuxembourgEurope 12 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
114 TürkiyeAsia and Middle East 12 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
Show top 20

How heat is scored

Heat measures how plausible a present requirement is, not how large a sale would be. Each country is scored separately for government and security vehicles, commercial vehicles, and spares and service, because a market can be closed for personnel carriers and open for service work.

structural  = 100 × evidence × (0.35 + 0.40 × scale + 0.25 × threat)
heat        = structural + (100 − structural) × 0.40 × live
addressable = heat × access
all segments = 0.6 × strongest segment + 0.4 × mean of the three

Evidence gates the score. Without a documented purchase, budget, mandate, counted fleet or dated threat listing, scale and threat cannot create a requirement. Unknown scale counts as 0.25, not zero: the baseline records missing measurement, not missing demand.

Live procurement confirms; it does not size. Published programmes and notices awaiting review add weight by stage, with a 120-day half-life and a 25% boost while a tender is open. At saturation they close 40% of the gap to 100.

Access is a separate lens. The requirement lens shows need regardless of supplier. The addressable lens discounts contested markets to 70% and closed markets to 15%. Countries under sanctions or embargo exposure are hatched in both lenses and score zero when addressable.

Input weights
EvidenceActual 1.00 · Forecast 0.70 · Plausible 0.35 · None 0
ScaleLarge 1.00 · Medium 0.70 · Small 0.40 · Unknown 0.25
ThreatConflict index up to 0.60 · US Level 4 advisory 0.30 · other dated data 0.10 · capped at 1
Live stageTender 1.0 · Evaluation 0.9 · Planning 0.8 · Award 0.6 · Production 0.4 · Service 0.3 · Notice in review 0.35
AccessOpen 1.00 · Contested 0.70 · Closed 0.15 · Hold 0
Check against the baseline workbook
Workbook priorityCountriesMedian addressable baseline
P12153
P25342
P32813
None820
Hold100

The model keeps the workbook’s order: P1 above P2 above P3. Baseline built 18 September 2026 from customs records, procurement budgets, regulatory mandates, fleet disclosures and threat datasets. HS 8710 understates civilian armoured SUVs and cash-in-transit vehicles. Heat is a prompt for research, not a forecast of orders or a compliance clearance.