defense.autoArmoured vehicle procurement
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Heatmap

Where armoured vehicle requirements are most plausible, country by country.

Scored from a 194-country baseline of customs, budget, mandate and threat evidence, then adjusted as tenders and notices arrive from the live sources.

RequirementAddressable
Addressable heat · Commercial Live · computed · 142 programmes, 0 notices in review
World map of armoured vehicle requirement heat Countries are shaded from low to very high heat. The country ranking below the map lists the same values.
  1. Low1–19
  2. Moderate20–39
  3. Elevated40–59
  4. High60–79
  5. Very high80–100
  • No signal
  • Compliance hold

Country ranking

76 of 194 countries show a signal · Commercial · Addressable
RankCountryHeatBandLiveEvidenceHorizonConfidenceWorkbook
1 NigeriaAfrica 84 Very high +4 Actual Now High P1
2 MexicoAmericas 65 High — Actual Next High P2
3 PalestineAsia and Middle East 64 High +2 Actual Next High P2
4 BrazilAmericas 63 High — Actual Next High P2
5 HaitiAmericas 61 High +16 Forecast Now High P2
6 SomaliaAfrica 60 Elevated +18 Actual Now High P2
7 UkraineEurope 56 Elevated +9 Actual Now High P2
8 LebanonAsia and Middle East 53 Elevated +15 Forecast Now High P2
9 SyriaAsia and Middle East 49 Elevated — Forecast Next Medium P2
10 LibyaAfrica 48 Elevated +11 Forecast Now Medium P2
11 GhanaAfrica 45 Elevated — Actual Next High P2
12 PakistanAsia and Middle East 45 Elevated +3 Actual Next High P2
13 DR CongoAfrica 44 Elevated — Actual Next High P2
14 MaliAfrica 42 Elevated — Actual Next High P2
15 EcuadorAmericas 42 Elevated — Forecast Next Medium P2
16 NigerAfrica 42 Elevated — Actual Next High P2
17 Burkina FasoAfrica 40 Elevated — Forecast Next Medium P2
18 GermanyEurope 40 Elevated +40 Plausible Now High None
19 ChadAfrica 39 Moderate — Forecast Next Medium P2
20 South SudanAfrica 39 Moderate — Forecast Next Medium P2
21 IraqAsia and Middle East 37 Moderate — Actual Next High P2
22 Central African RepublicAfrica 37 Moderate — Forecast Next Medium P2
23 UgandaAfrica 37 Moderate — Actual Next High P2
24 CameroonAfrica 33 Moderate — Actual Next High P2
25 EthiopiaAfrica 33 Moderate — Forecast Next Medium P2
26 PolandEurope 32 Moderate +32 Actual Now High None
27 United KingdomEurope 28 Moderate +28 Plausible Now High None
28 Republic of the CongoAfrica 24 Moderate +9 Plausible Now Low P3
29 EstoniaEurope 23 Moderate +23 Actual Now High None
30 IsraelAsia and Middle East 22 Moderate +9 Actual Now High P3
31 ItalyEurope 22 Moderate +22 Plausible Now High None
32 PortugalEurope 22 Moderate +22 Actual Now High None
33 HondurasAmericas 21 Moderate +10 Plausible Now Low P3
34 GeorgiaAsia and Middle East 18 Low +3 Plausible Later Low P3
35 MaltaEurope 18 Low +18 None found Now Low None
36 CzechiaEurope 17 Low +17 None found Now Low None
37 United StatesAmericas 16 Low +16 Actual Now High None
38 TanzaniaAfrica 16 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
39 AlgeriaAfrica 16 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
40 AngolaAfrica 16 Low — Actual Next High P3
41 BahrainAsia and Middle East 16 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
42 BangladeshAsia and Middle East 16 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
43 BeninAfrica 16 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
44 ChileAmericas 16 Low — Actual Next High P3
45 DjiboutiAfrica 16 Low — Actual Next High P3
46 EgyptAfrica 16 Low — Actual Next High P3
47 GabonAfrica 16 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
48 GambiaAfrica 16 Low — Actual Next High P3
49 GuineaAfrica 16 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
50 JordanAsia and Middle East 16 Low — Actual Next High P3
51 KazakhstanAsia and Middle East 16 Low — Actual Next High P3
52 KenyaAfrica 16 Low — Actual Next High P3
53 KuwaitAsia and Middle East 16 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
54 LiberiaAfrica 16 Low — Actual Next High P3
55 MauritaniaAfrica 16 Low — Actual Next High P3
56 MozambiqueAfrica 16 Low — Actual Next High P3
57 New ZealandOceania 16 Low — Actual Next High P3
58 OmanAsia and Middle East 16 Low — Actual Next High P3
59 Papua New GuineaOceania 16 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
60 QatarAsia and Middle East 16 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
61 RwandaAfrica 16 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
62 Saudi ArabiaAsia and Middle East 16 Low — Actual Next High P3
63 SenegalAfrica 16 Low — Actual Next High P3
64 TogoAfrica 16 Low — Actual Next High P3
65 United Arab EmiratesAsia and Middle East 16 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
66 ZambiaAfrica 16 Low — Actual Next High P3
67 NorwayEurope 15 Low +15 Actual Now High None
68 ColombiaAmericas 11 Low — Actual Next High P3
69 GuatemalaAmericas 11 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
70 IndiaAsia and Middle East 11 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
71 South AfricaAfrica 11 Low — Actual Next High P3
72 CanadaAmericas 9 Low +9 Actual Next High None
73 LatviaEurope 9 Low +9 Actual Next High None
74 SwedenEurope 9 Low +9 Plausible Later Low None
75 NetherlandsEurope 8 Low +8 Actual Next High None
76 AustriaEurope 1 Low +1 Plausible Later Low None
Show top 20

How heat is scored

Heat measures how plausible a present requirement is, not how large a sale would be. Each country is scored separately for government and security vehicles, commercial vehicles, and spares and service, because a market can be closed for personnel carriers and open for service work.

structural  = 100 × evidence × (0.35 + 0.40 × scale + 0.25 × threat)
heat        = structural + (100 − structural) × 0.40 × live
addressable = heat × access
all segments = 0.6 × strongest segment + 0.4 × mean of the three

Evidence gates the score. Without a documented purchase, budget, mandate, counted fleet or dated threat listing, scale and threat cannot create a requirement. Unknown scale counts as 0.25, not zero: the baseline records missing measurement, not missing demand.

Live procurement confirms; it does not size. Published programmes and notices awaiting review add weight by stage, with a 120-day half-life and a 25% boost while a tender is open. At saturation they close 40% of the gap to 100.

Access is a separate lens. The requirement lens shows need regardless of supplier. The addressable lens discounts contested markets to 70% and closed markets to 15%. Countries under sanctions or embargo exposure are hatched in both lenses and score zero when addressable.

Input weights
EvidenceActual 1.00 · Forecast 0.70 · Plausible 0.35 · None 0
ScaleLarge 1.00 · Medium 0.70 · Small 0.40 · Unknown 0.25
ThreatConflict index up to 0.60 · US Level 4 advisory 0.30 · other dated data 0.10 · capped at 1
Live stageTender 1.0 · Evaluation 0.9 · Planning 0.8 · Award 0.6 · Production 0.4 · Service 0.3 · Notice in review 0.35
AccessOpen 1.00 · Contested 0.70 · Closed 0.15 · Hold 0
Check against the baseline workbook
Workbook priorityCountriesMedian addressable baseline
P12153
P25342
P32813
None820
Hold100

The model keeps the workbook’s order: P1 above P2 above P3. Baseline built 18 September 2026 from customs records, procurement budgets, regulatory mandates, fleet disclosures and threat datasets. HS 8710 understates civilian armoured SUVs and cash-in-transit vehicles. Heat is a prompt for research, not a forecast of orders or a compliance clearance.