defense.autoArmoured vehicle procurement
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Heatmap

Where armoured vehicle requirements are most plausible, country by country.

Scored from a 194-country baseline of customs, budget, mandate and threat evidence, then adjusted as tenders and notices arrive from the live sources.

RequirementAddressable
Addressable heat · All segments Live · computed · 142 programmes, 0 notices in review
World map of armoured vehicle requirement heat Countries are shaded from low to very high heat. The country ranking below the map lists the same values.
  1. Low1–19
  2. Moderate20–39
  3. Elevated40–59
  4. High60–79
  5. Very high80–100
  • No signal
  • Compliance hold

Country ranking

104 of 194 countries show a signal · All segments · Addressable
RankCountryHeatBandLiveEvidenceHorizonConfidenceWorkbook
1 NigeriaAfrica 79 High +2 Actual Now High P1
2 DR CongoAfrica 72 High — Actual Next High P1
3 SomaliaAfrica 69 High +14 Actual Now High P2
4 IraqAsia and Middle East 63 High — Actual Next High P1
5 UgandaAfrica 63 High — Actual Next High P1
6 MaliAfrica 63 High — Actual Next High P2
7 UkraineEurope 63 High +2 Actual Now High P2
8 ColombiaAmericas 62 High — Actual Next High P1
9 BotswanaAfrica 62 High — Actual Next High P1
10 PhilippinesAsia and Middle East 62 High — Actual Next High P1
11 BrazilAmericas 62 High — Actual Next High P2
12 HaitiAmericas 59 Elevated +17 Forecast Now High P2
13 CameroonAfrica 59 Elevated — Actual Next High P1
14 GhanaAfrica 58 Elevated — Actual Next High P1
15 NigerAfrica 57 Elevated — Actual Next High P2
16 PalestineAsia and Middle East 57 Elevated +2 Actual Next High P2
17 MexicoAmericas 56 Elevated — Actual Next High P2
18 OmanAsia and Middle East 54 Elevated — Actual Next High P1
19 PolandEurope 53 Elevated +9 Actual Now High P2
20 KenyaAfrica 53 Elevated — Actual Next High P1
21 SenegalAfrica 53 Elevated — Actual Next High P1
22 TogoAfrica 53 Elevated — Actual Next High P1
23 BoliviaAmericas 52 Elevated — Actual Next High P1
24 Côte d'IvoireAfrica 52 Elevated — Actual Next High P1
25 NamibiaAfrica 52 Elevated — Actual Next High P1
26 NepalAsia and Middle East 52 Elevated — Actual Next High P1
27 El SalvadorAmericas 51 Elevated — Actual Next High P1
28 JamaicaAmericas 51 Elevated — Actual Next High P1
29 LebanonAsia and Middle East 51 Elevated +15 Forecast Now High P2
30 TajikistanAsia and Middle East 51 Elevated — Actual Next High P1
31 TunisiaAfrica 51 Elevated — Actual Next High P1
32 United StatesAmericas 48 Elevated +4 Actual Now High P2
33 NorwayEurope 48 Elevated +4 Actual Now High P2
34 CanadaAmericas 46 Elevated +3 Actual Next High P2
35 LibyaAfrica 46 Elevated +12 Forecast Now Medium P2
36 SyriaAsia and Middle East 46 Elevated — Forecast Next Medium P2
37 NetherlandsEurope 46 Elevated +2 Actual Next High P2
38 EstoniaEurope 45 Elevated +8 Actual Now High P2
39 PortugalEurope 45 Elevated +7 Actual Now High P2
40 AustraliaOceania 43 Elevated — Actual Next High P2
41 BelgiumEurope 43 Elevated — Actual Next High P2
42 DenmarkEurope 43 Elevated — Actual Next High P2
43 IndonesiaAsia and Middle East 43 Elevated — Actual Next High P2
44 JapanAsia and Middle East 43 Elevated — Actual Next High P2
45 LithuaniaEurope 43 Elevated — Actual Next High P2
46 RomaniaEurope 43 Elevated — Actual Next High P2
47 South KoreaAsia and Middle East 43 Elevated — Actual Next High P2
48 SpainEurope 43 Elevated — Actual Next High P2
49 SwitzerlandEurope 43 Elevated — Actual Next High P2
50 ThailandAsia and Middle East 43 Elevated — Actual Next High P2
51 Saudi ArabiaAsia and Middle East 42 Elevated — Actual Next High P2
52 AngolaAfrica 42 Elevated — Actual Next High P2
53 ChileAmericas 42 Elevated — Actual Next High P2
54 DjiboutiAfrica 42 Elevated — Actual Next High P2
55 GambiaAfrica 42 Elevated — Actual Next High P2
56 KazakhstanAsia and Middle East 42 Elevated — Actual Next High P2
57 LiberiaAfrica 42 Elevated — Actual Next High P2
58 MauritaniaAfrica 42 Elevated — Actual Next High P2
59 MozambiqueAfrica 42 Elevated — Actual Next High P2
60 ZambiaAfrica 42 Elevated — Actual Next High P2
61 PakistanAsia and Middle East 40 Elevated +1 Actual Next High P2
62 LatviaEurope 40 Moderate +3 Actual Next High P2
63 EcuadorAmericas 39 Moderate — Forecast Next Medium P2
64 South SudanAfrica 39 Moderate — Forecast Next Medium P2
65 South AfricaAfrica 38 Moderate — Actual Next High P2
66 JordanAsia and Middle East 38 Moderate — Actual Next High P2
67 GermanyEurope 38 Moderate +29 Plausible Now High P3
68 Burkina FasoAfrica 38 Moderate — Forecast Next Medium P2
69 SlovakiaEurope 37 Moderate — Actual Next High P2
70 ChadAfrica 36 Moderate — Forecast Next Medium P2
71 CroatiaEurope 36 Moderate — Actual Next High P2
72 Central African RepublicAfrica 35 Moderate — Forecast Next Medium P2
73 EthiopiaAfrica 31 Moderate — Forecast Next Medium P2
74 EgyptAfrica 30 Moderate — Actual Next High P2
75 New ZealandOceania 30 Moderate — Actual Next High P2
76 United KingdomEurope 26 Moderate +18 Plausible Now High P3
77 HondurasAmericas 26 Moderate +13 Plausible Now Low P3
78 ItalyEurope 23 Moderate +14 Plausible Now High P3
79 Republic of the CongoAfrica 22 Moderate +9 Plausible Now Low P3
80 IsraelAsia and Middle East 19 Low +2 Actual Now High P3
81 MaltaEurope 18 Low +18 None found Now Low None
82 GeorgiaAsia and Middle East 16 Low +3 Plausible Later Low P3
83 CzechiaEurope 16 Low +16 None found Now Low None
84 SwedenEurope 14 Low +6 Plausible Later Low P3
85 TanzaniaAfrica 14 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
86 AlgeriaAfrica 14 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
87 BahrainAsia and Middle East 14 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
88 BangladeshAsia and Middle East 14 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
89 BeninAfrica 14 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
90 GabonAfrica 14 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
91 GuineaAfrica 14 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
92 KuwaitAsia and Middle East 14 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
93 Papua New GuineaOceania 14 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
94 QatarAsia and Middle East 14 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
95 RwandaAfrica 14 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
96 GuatemalaAmericas 13 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
97 United Arab EmiratesAsia and Middle East 13 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
98 IndiaAsia and Middle East 10 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
99 AustriaEurope 9 Low +1 Plausible Later Low P3
100 ChinaAsia and Middle East 8 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
101 FranceEurope 8 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
102 IrelandEurope 8 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
103 LuxembourgEurope 8 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
104 TürkiyeAsia and Middle East 8 Low — Plausible Later Low P3
Show top 20

How heat is scored

Heat measures how plausible a present requirement is, not how large a sale would be. Each country is scored separately for government and security vehicles, commercial vehicles, and spares and service, because a market can be closed for personnel carriers and open for service work.

structural  = 100 × evidence × (0.35 + 0.40 × scale + 0.25 × threat)
heat        = structural + (100 − structural) × 0.40 × live
addressable = heat × access
all segments = 0.6 × strongest segment + 0.4 × mean of the three

Evidence gates the score. Without a documented purchase, budget, mandate, counted fleet or dated threat listing, scale and threat cannot create a requirement. Unknown scale counts as 0.25, not zero: the baseline records missing measurement, not missing demand.

Live procurement confirms; it does not size. Published programmes and notices awaiting review add weight by stage, with a 120-day half-life and a 25% boost while a tender is open. At saturation they close 40% of the gap to 100.

Access is a separate lens. The requirement lens shows need regardless of supplier. The addressable lens discounts contested markets to 70% and closed markets to 15%. Countries under sanctions or embargo exposure are hatched in both lenses and score zero when addressable.

Input weights
EvidenceActual 1.00 · Forecast 0.70 · Plausible 0.35 · None 0
ScaleLarge 1.00 · Medium 0.70 · Small 0.40 · Unknown 0.25
ThreatConflict index up to 0.60 · US Level 4 advisory 0.30 · other dated data 0.10 · capped at 1
Live stageTender 1.0 · Evaluation 0.9 · Planning 0.8 · Award 0.6 · Production 0.4 · Service 0.3 · Notice in review 0.35
AccessOpen 1.00 · Contested 0.70 · Closed 0.15 · Hold 0
Check against the baseline workbook
Workbook priorityCountriesMedian addressable baseline
P12153
P25342
P32813
None820
Hold100

The model keeps the workbook’s order: P1 above P2 above P3. Baseline built 18 September 2026 from customs records, procurement budgets, regulatory mandates, fleet disclosures and threat datasets. HS 8710 understates civilian armoured SUVs and cash-in-transit vehicles. Heat is a prompt for research, not a forecast of orders or a compliance clearance.